With just days to go until SailGP returns to one of the most iconic city skylines in the world, attention turns to the formbook, the forecast, and the futures market. Marking the sixth event of the 2025 Season, the Mubadala New York Sail Grand Prix promises high stakes-and high drama-for fans and bettors alike.
Whether you’re new to SailGP or looking for a betting edge, here’s what to watch out for heading into New York.
Weather Watch: Light air, big implications?
New York’s June climate can be a mixed bag – but has traditionally provided moderate to light winds. Daytime seabreezes are common, especially in the scheduled afternoon race window, with average wind speeds of between 16 – 24 km/h.
🔍 Key stat: SailGP’s last visit to New York in Season 4, saw race wins for Emirates GBR, Switzerland, NorthStar Canada and Australia, with New Zealand crowned the overall event winner.
Form Guide: Pressure Mounts, Rivalries Heat Up
📈 On the rise: Spain & NorthStar Canada
Spain, driven by Diego Botín, is growing into the season after clinching victory in San Francisco. Giles Scott’s NorthStar Canada picked up its first event win since Season 3 in Los Angeles, and has recorded 2-1-2 results in the last three events, making it one of the most in-form teams in the league.
📉 Facing challenges: Australia & ROCKWOOL DEN
Australia suffered a significant setback in San Francisco when its wing dramatically collapsed in the pre-start of the last fleet race. The extensive damage stopped the team from competing in the event Final. ROCKWOOL DEN meanwhile picked devastating penalty points and missed the last two events after a collision with a race mark in Los Angeles caused significant damage to its F50.
📍 Venue insight: New York nuances
A tight racecourse and unpredictable breeze make New York a tactical test. Staring is particularly important, with the teams securing the favoured end of the line often converting early gains into race wins. The city’s strong tides add an additional challenge and, with packed shoreside crowds expected, the event is set to be a unique event on the 2025 Season calendar.
Season Futures Market: Odds and Movements
The Rolex SailGP Championship race is heating up, with closely matched odds for the top teams:
| Team | Pre-Season Odds | Current Odds | Season swing | Notes |
| NZL | +300, 4.00, (25%) | +376, 5.00, (21%) | -4% | Solid season start, but seeking consistency |
| AUS | +400, 5.00, (20%) | +300, 4.00, (25%) | +5% | Recovering from dramatic wing incident |
| GBR | +488, 6.00, (17%) | +355, 4.50, (22%) | +5% | Promising performances but recent form dip |
| USA | +567, 7.00, (15%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | -14% | Hoping for an uplift in home waters |
| FRA | +809, 9.00, (11%) | +900, 10.00, (10%) | -1% | Known as a low wind specialist |
| ESP | +809, 9.00, (11%) | +525, 6.00, (16%) | +5% | Gaining momentum |
| DEN | +1150, 12.50, (8%) | +1900, 20.00, (5%) | -3% | |
| CAN | +1567, 17.50, (6%) | +525, 6.00, (16%) | +10% | In form, with recent 2-1-2 finishes |
| GER | +1567, 17.50, (6%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | -5% | |
| SUI | +4900, 50.00, (2%) | +2400, 25.00, (4%) | +2% | |
| ITA | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | – | |
| BRA | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) | – | |
Note probabilities are subject to change and are accurate at the time of writing.
Event Winner Market: Odds
| Team | Make the Final | Win the Final |
| NZL | -113, 1.90, (53%) | +426, 5.00, (19%) |
| AUS | -133, 1.75, (57%) | +376, 4.70, (21%) |
| GBR | +317, 4.00, (24%) | +1011, 11.00, (9%) |
| USA | +3233, 33.00, (3%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) |
| FRA | +233, 3.30, (30%) | +733, 8.30, (12%) |
| ESP | -122, 1.80, (55%) | +400, 5.00, (20%) |
| DEN | +3233, 33.00, (3%) | +9900, 100.00, (1%) |
| CAN | -133, 1.75, (57%) | +376, 4.80, (21%) |
| GER | +990, 10.00, (10%) | +2400, 25.00, (4%) |
| SUI | +400, 5.00, (20%) | +1150, 12.50, (8%) |
| ITA | +1900, 20.00, (5%) | +3233, 33.00, (3%) |
| BRA | +2400, 25.00, (4%) | +4900, 50.00, (2%) |
Predictions & Suggested Bets
💸 Value bet: Emirates GBR to qualify for the Final (+317, 4.2, 24%)
Dylan Fletcher’s crew started the 2025 Season with two top-three finishes and an event win. Despite a dip in San Francisco, the team could be set for a comeback in New York.
🌬 Forward forecast: New Zealand to win the Final (+426, 5.26, 19%)
Last year’s New York winners, New Zealand thrive in light-air venues. If the breeze stays soft, the Black Foils could make another late charge.
🇨🇦 One to watch: NorthStar Canada for the Championship title (+525, 6.25, 16%)
Riding the wave of momentum from its stream of top three results, NorthStar Canada is a dark horse for Grand Final qualification – and even the title.
🆚 Event Head-to-head: Red Bull Italy v. Germany Deutsche Bank (+300, 4.0, 25%)
The Italian outfit lead Erik Heil’s German team 3-2 in head-to-heads this season. There’s strong value here if this trend continues.
🔮 Long shot to make the event Final: ROCKWOOL DEN (+3233, 33.0, 3%)
Back from setbacks, and priced long. Worth a punt if the Danish rediscover their form from last season’s top-four finish.
Final thoughts
The Mubadala New York Sail Grand Prix is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable – and potentially profitable events of the season. With tight margins and shifting conditions, this event is wide open for surprise podiums and outsider wins.
Stay tuned for race day updates, adjusted odds, and insider insights as the action unfolds in New York.
Starting points for our US readers
Starting points for our UK readers
Starting points for our Global readers
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