05/12/2026
by Emma Harrison
As SailGP lands in the UK for the Emirates Great Britain Sail Grand Prix in Portsmouth, race fans and bettors alike are poring over the numbers from last month’s Mubadala New York event. While the venue and conditions may change, the fleet data from New York provides a valuable lens into form, tactics, and momentum – all of which could be crucial in predicting outcomes on the Solent.
New Zealand: Data-Driven Favourites
Heading into Portsmouth, New Zealand top the odds boards to Win the Final at 3.7 (27/10). The numbers from New York back that up. Peter Burling’s crew recorded the highest average finishing position (3.5) across six fleet races and posted a flawless tactical execution in light and choppy conditions.
New Zealand also excelled in:
- Average ride height: highest of all teams (48.5cm)
- Foiling time: near-perfect at 99%
- Starting speed: fastest in the Final at 46.4 km/h
While they lost out to Spain in the Final, the data suggests the Kiwis are the most consistent threat in the fleet – especially with similar tidal conditions forecast in Portsmouth.
Spain: Fast, Efficient, and Undervalued?
Despite winning back-to-back events, Spain sits fourth in the Win the Final odds at 6.45 (11/2). But the data tells a more impressive story.
Spain’s win in New York wasn’t luck – it was backed by superior starts and fly time:
- Closest to the start line at the klaxon: just 13.7m
- Quickest across the line after the klaxon: 1.1 seconds
- Highest fly time in the Final: 100%
- Top average speed: 59.1 km/h
They led from start to finish in the Final, suggesting they are mastering the timing, positioning, and aerodynamic efficiency that are crucial for short-course racing.
France & Canada: The Big Movers
France, at 6.06 (5/1), continues to show upward momentum. Quentin Delapierre’s team led all boats in fleet overtakes (16) and had the highest top speed in fleet racing alongside the BONDS Flying Roos at 84.4 km/h. France also posted back-to-back podium finishes, and showed they could climb through the pack regardless of early position – an invaluable trait when sailing in unfamiliar waters.
Canada, meanwhile, is priced at 9.52 (17/2) and is quietly becoming a reliable top-half finisher. Their tactical improvement from Mark 1 (avg: 8.3) to finish (avg: 5.7) and strong performance in medium winds suggests they’re well-positioned for conditions expected in Portsmouth.
Emirates GBR: Can Home Waters Help?
Emirates GBR face mounting pressure ahead of their home event. After strong early-season performances, they’ve slumped in recent races – finishing 7th and 8th in the last two events. In New York, they were the slowest team to cross the start line after the klaxon (avg: 6.5s) and struggled with acceleration off the line.
Despite this, they’re still priced at 10.0 (9/1) to win the Final – perhaps more in hope than data-backed expectation. However, familiarity with Solent conditions and home crowd motivation could provide an intangible boost.
Brazil & Denmark: Wildcards With Momentum
Mubadala Brazil, priced long at 28.57 (27/1), showed genuine signs of breakthrough in New York – recording their first race win, a 4th overall finish, and 15 overtakes across the weekend. Their ability to gain positions from Mark 1 to finish (+2.5 average) suggests they’re not to be underestimated, especially in variable wind conditions.
ROCKWOOL DEN led the fleet in average starting speed (44.4 km/h) and Mark 1 position (3.2) – yet couldn’t convert starts into final results. If they tighten up their second-half execution, they could offer serious value from long odds.
Final Takeaway
The Mubadala New York Sail Grand Prix gave us a treasure trove of insights. The numbers show Spain’s starts and fly time are elite, New Zealand remains ruthlessly efficient, and France’s pace and overtaking skills make them serious threats. Meanwhile, Canada and Mubadala Brazil are climbing fast, while Emirates GBR will need every ounce of home support to halt their slide.
For bettors, interpreting this data could make all the difference in Portsmouth – where the numbers behind the performance might matter more than the names on the sail.
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