05/12/2026
by Emma Harrison
SailGP returns to British shores this weekend for the Emirates Great Britain Sail Grand Prix in Portsmouth, and all eyes are on two questions: can Spain continue their winning streak, and will Emirates GBR rise to the occasion on home waters?
Spain Targeting Three in a Row .
It’s been a stunning run of form for Diego Botin’s Spanish team, which now sits atop the season leaderboard following back-to-back event wins in San Francisco and New York.
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Spain enters Portsmouth with momentum and speed – not just figuratively, but literally, having clocked the highest average speed in New York at 47 km/h and topped the leaderboard after Day 1 of racing. In the winner-takes-all Final in NYC, Spain edged out New Zealand in a nail-biter, hitting 72 km/h and crossing the finish line just three seconds ahead of the Kiwis.
Yet, bookmakers are cautious. Spain is fourth-favourite to win the Final at 6.45 (11/2) – suggesting the market remains skeptical about whether they can make it three in a row. With tricky tidal conditions in the Solent and little prior fleet experience in Portsmouth, it’s a big test for Botin’s crew.
Kiwis and Aussies Lead the Betting .
Despite Spain’s recent success, it’s New Zealand and the BONDS Flying Roos of Australia who head the betting markets for this weekend.
New Zealand are 3.7 (27/10) favourites to win the Final, after strong performances in New York and a standout win in Race 3 where they lapped the fleet – a SailGP first. With Peter Burling’s team posting consistent results (1st, 4th, 8th, 2nd, 5th, 2nd), they remain the model of tactical precision.
The BONDS Flying Roos, led by Tom Slingsby, are priced at 4.35 (15/4), despite being penalized in New York and battling through mixed conditions. They still managed a race win and closed out Day 2 with solid performances, showing why they’re perennial Final contenders.
Home Hopes for Emirates GBR .
After a rollercoaster mid-season, Emirates GBR are desperate to return to form in front of their home crowd. Following podium finishes in Dubai, Auckland and Sydney, Dylan Fletcher’s squad hit a slump, placing 7th and 8th in the last two events. But with the passionate Portsmouth crowd behind them and familiarity with Solent-style conditions, GBR could spring a surprise.
Still, they’re only sixth-favourite to win Race 1 at 10.53 (19/2) and joint fifth-favourite for the Final at 10.0 (9/1) – a reflection of both recent inconsistency and a tightly contested field. If GBR is to bounce back, they’ll need to rediscover the rhythm that saw them dominate earlier in the season.
Value Watch: France & Canada .
France at 6.06 (5/1) and Canada at 9.52 (17/2) offer strong value in the Win the Final betting market. France has back-to-back podiums and excellent mid-fleet consistency, while Canada showed flashes of brilliance in New York, including two top-two finishes. If conditions turn tactical, both could mount a charge.
Outside Chances & Wildcards .
Mubadala Brazil at 28.57 (27/1) showed real promise in New York, winning a race for the first time and nearly making the Final.
ROCKWOOL DEN, back from their early-season boat damage, looked sharp in fleet races and could upset the odds.
Meanwhile, USA, GER Deutsche Bank, and Red Bull Italy remain long shots, all priced at 66.67 (65/1) to win the Final – reflective of recent form struggles.
Verdict .
New Zealand are deserved favourites, but don’t rule out Spain’s recent surge or a home comeback from Emirates GBR. With an unfamiliar venue, strong tides and unpredictable winds, Portsmouth could throw up some surprizes – and there’s plenty of value for bettors willing to back momentum or home advantage.
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