ROCKWOOL Germany Sail Grand Prix: What sort of SailGP gambler are you?
A look at the three main types of sports gamblers should help you identify which of the categories you fall under, while an explanation of the concept of value betting helps us identify two value bets ahead of this weekend’s action at the ROCKWOOL Germany Sail Grand Prix.
The Three Types of Sports Gamblers
Sports bettors tend to fall into three distinct categories.
The Favorite Backers
The first are those who see gambling almost as an attempt to ‘buy’ money and, for the most part, prefer to go for the hot favorites.
They’re the ones who see a 1.3 shot as a chance to secure a quick 30% profit on their investment, on the basis that something that has a 77% chance of winning really should win. Or else it wouldn’t have been that price to begin with, would it?
In terms of betting on the Rolex SailGP Championship, a typical wager for this type of bettor would be to back the Bonds Flying Roos – the most successful team in SailGP history and this year’s leaders at the top of the Championship standings – for a Top 3 finish ahead of each event, with odds ranging from about 1.4 to 1.8.
Out of interest, they’re 1.72 for a Top 3 finish this week at the ROCKWOOL Germany Sail Grand Prix, so that’s exactly the sort of price they’d be interested in.
The Longshot Merchants
The second type of sports bettor is one of a far more speculative nature. They’ll believe that backing big outsiders is the way forward on the basis that a win on an outsider at 10.0 or better, still, at 20.0, every now and then, more than makes up for the inevitable losses on the outsiders that don’t go on to win.
They’re the sort who, rather than dismiss the long odds as something that’s highly unlikely to happen (by definition, it is unlikely to happen), embrace them as an opportunity to see a 10x or 20x return on their investment.
For example, they’re just the sort who would have known that odds of 60.0 on the US.S SailGP Team ahead of the KPMG Sydney Sail Grand Prix equated to an implied probability of just 1.7%, but backed them anyway. Good for them, and there’s a fine example right there of how you only need one of those big outsiders to come good every so often to be in profit.
If this sounds like you, then odds of 25.0 on the Germany SailGP Team Presented by Deutsche Bank, very capable on their day, to win this week’s event, may be right up your street. Or that the Explora Swiss Team take Race 1 on Saturday over in Group A at odds of 10.0.
The Value-Seekers
The third type of sports gambler is the value-seeking one. To be one of these, you need to take a very methodical, mathematical, and sanguine approach to betting.
The question for this type of punter is always the same one: are the odds on x outcome bigger than they should be? The should is subjective because not everyone will agree on what the actual odds should be, as they involve taking into account numerous factors, and everyone will have their own opinions on which factors matter, and to what extent.
But after careful consideration, this type of punter will decide that the odds on a particular outcome should be X.
For example, they might set the odds on DS Automobiles Team France to make the final this week in Sassnitz at 2.5, mostly because they won the event last year here in Germany. But other factors, too.
So, once that number of 2.5 has been scribbled down, they will back the French if their odds are bigger than that 2.5, but not, if they’re shorter. In this case, DS Team France are 3.13, so following their rationale of only backing outcomes with odds higher than expected, they’d bet on the French at those odds.
The rationale behind it all is a simple one: if you keep backing outcomes at bigger odds than they should be, you keep getting paid out more than you should when they win, and these extra winnings make up for losses elsewhere.
All professional gamblers, without exception, come under this category. Every last one will tell you that securing value odds – higher than expected – is the name of the game, and that you should only bet when there are value odds.
Why Artemis SailGP Team Are This Week’s Value Bet
So which are this week’s value bets? A reminder that value is somewhat objective because it’s highly unlikely that two people will agree that these are the exact odds that something should be, but here are a couple of wagers that look overpriced before we get underway on the Baltic Sea.
The Artemis SailGP Team are in their debut season, but they’ve already made a splash in the SailGP Championship.
In eight events this season, they’ve made the final on three occasions. The first was at the Enel Rio Sail Grand Prix in mid-April, where they finished third.
They then secured places in the final at both the Canada Sail Grand Prix and the Emirates Sail Grand Prix over the last few weeks. What’s particularly significant about the latter is that these were the first two events with group racing in place, suggesting that’s a format that somehow suits them better than most.
At the most basic level, they’ve made the final in 37.5% of the events this season, yet are priced up as a 2.94 chance to make the final this week, which is 34%. Small margins, yes, but they make a difference, and as we know, they’ve taken to group racing better than most.
Los Gallos Are Bigger Than They Should Be, Too
The other value bet is one already identified in our first preview of this event.
From the start of the 2024-25 season, and including the eight that have already taken place in the 2026 season, there have been 17 events.
Of those 17, Los Gallos SailGP Team have won four – two last season, two this season – which means they won 23.5% of them. That translates to odds of 4.26, yet here they are, available at odds of 8.33 to win this week, despite the fact that they’re fresh from winning two in a row, so they’re clearly in excellent form. So there’s a good example of a bet that is almost twice the odds that the event win percentage metric suggests it should be.
Interestingly, the Bonds Flying Roos also won four races over the same period – just the one last season but three this season – so have the same 23.5% win rate as Los Gallos, yet are 6.25 to win this weekend.
Of course, there are plenty of other factors to consider beyond just win rates over the past season and a half, but if we’re just focusing on that metric, Los Gallos represent the better value bet.
That said, both are value bets, so splitting stakes between the two wouldn’t be the worst idea.
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