SailGP’s Season 4 Grand Final in San Francisco kicks off on July 13/14. Ahead of the event, SailGP CEO Russell Coutts gives his behind the scenes insight into the fleet.
We’re in San Francisco for the race we’ve all been waiting for - the winner-takes-all, $2 million Grand Final to decide the Season 4 Champion. But we’ve still got five fleet races left to decide who makes it into that race. New Zealand is at the top of the leaderboard with a 15 point lead over Australia in second and are the only team already qualified for the Grand Final. Barring disaster, the Aussies are likely to make it too, which means there’s a battle brewing between France and Spain for the third and final spot in the showdown.
It’s looking like we’re going to have strong winds of 35-40 km/h this weekend - historically the top teams in these conditions are New Zealand, Australia, France and more recently Emirates GBR. The only way New Zealand could miss the Grand Final is by having a collision and that surely means they’ll sail a little more conservatively in fleet racing (even if they won’t admit it). They won’t want to risk the boat and or push too hard in the starts and the same is likely to be true for Australia.
That means there could be a scenario where Australia and New Zealand ease off in fleet racing, which might open the door for France to win the event. France won in Sydney Season 3 in similar conditions, so it’s not that hard to imagine that scenario unfolding. You could then see Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Emirates GBR finishing behind them (remember how well the British sailed in the high winds of Halifax) and Spain could come 6th. That would mean France would progress through into the winner-takes-all Grand Final instead of Spain.
And which team will win that three-boat Grand Final? You’ve got to remember that Tom Slingsby and the Australians are undefeated in San Francisco - this team is notoriously very tough to beat in windy conditions. Having said that, the team has been in eight Finals this season and only won one. They seemed to lose confidence after hitting the race mark in Christchurch and have had quite a few technical issues and errors for the remainder of the season which hasn’t allowed them to build any momentum.
The only event they won this season was in Sydney and that was the only event that Peter Burling missed! New Zealand has a 15 point lead over the Aussies and should win the season on points - earning them an extra $350K in additional prize money. They’ve got the backing of fans and bookies to win the event, clearly they’re the favorites to win, but will they beat the Aussies in the final? I say they won’t.
Spain has really stepped up this season - winning 11 fleet races and two events, entering San Francisco in third overall. It’s a huge turnaround from last season, which they finished in last place with just one fleet race win throughout the whole season. They beat New Zealand and Australia in Bermuda, but didn’t sail as well in Halifax or New York. They’re also not as confident as New Zealand, Australia or even France, ROCKWOOL DEN, Emirates GBR or Canada in these strong winds. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare in the fleet racing to see if they’ve improved.
France has had an average season - they’ve only won three fleet races and only made it into two event Finals - but won neither of them. They still have a chance to make the Grand Final - but they need to be on the podium in the fleet racing and need Spain to have a bad event. It’s worth remembering that France is confident and fast in strong wind conditions - they own the fastest race speed record of 99.94 km/h set in Saint-Tropez last season and no-one has been able to break that since.
As we look ahead to the 2024/2025 Season, we’re preparing to welcome two new teams into the league, including the recently announced Mubadala Brazil SailGP Team. It’s likely those new teams will be looking to poach experienced athletes from other teams, which I think is the obvious thing to do. If the rumors are true, those discussions are already underway and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some of our most established crews move around next season. Interesting times in SailGP.
