July 24, 2026
by James Pacheco
Weather prediction markets are gaining in popularity right now, so there’s been a surge in the selection of contracts you will find. When we first started visiting prediction market sites, weather options were relatively thin.
These days, you can predict the temperature in various states, how much rain there will be, and even how many hurricanes a state will get within a month. As you can see, there are plenty of weather-related outcomes to forecast, offering a diverse mixture of options that will suit many traders. Ready to learn more? Let’s go!
Top Prediction Markets Sites and Apps for Weather Predictions
Quick facts of weather prediction markets
If you’re new to prediction markets, we will start by getting you up to speed with how it all works, in the context of weather-related outcomes.
- You can buy and sell event contracts that are linked to various weather-related events.
- Each contract will range from $0.01 to $0.99, depending on the market liquidity.
- The contract prices also reflect the implied probability, which fluctuates as more contracts are sold.
- If a contract is priced at $0.25, this represents a chance of 25% for that outcome happening, for example.
- If you make the correct prediction, your contract will settle at $1.
- Incorrect forecasts will result in no payout, and the contract will resolve at $0.
Different types of weather prediction markets you will find
Predicting the weather is actually a lot more interesting than it might sound. You can forecast a wide range of weather-themed events, which is why it’s becoming so popular. You will be forgiven for thinking that weather-related outcomes are just about predicting the temperature, as that’s what we thought initially, too. These days, you can predict a whole stack of outcomes, including:
Temperature
This has to be the most prominent weather prediction market around and is usually the first one you will find when landing on the ‘weather’ category. Here, you will find contracts that are tied to predicting the highest or lowest temperatures of specific locations either on certain days or a specific month or year. You might come across event contracts, such as:
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on [day]?
- Lowest temperature in Miami on [day]?
- How many days will be the hottest day on record?
Precipitation
These contracts will cover anything related to water, such as rainfall, snow, sleet, and hail. Essentially, if it involves water, in some form, falling from the sky, you will find it under this category. Depending on the site you join, you will find event contracts, including:
- Precipitation in London in July?
- Rain in Seattle this month?
- Will it snow in New York City this month?
Hurricanes
Not only can you predict if there will be a hurricane in a specific area, but you can also forecast what category it will be, too. Hurricane-related contracts are often more diverse than you may think, offering event contracts such as:
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in 2026?
- Will there be a natural disaster in 2026?
- Will there be a Category 5 hurricane in the US by 2027?
Climate change
This category is quite broad, offering several event contracts that are linked to record-breaking temperatures, government policies, and more. For that reason, it’s worth exploring, as the list of contracts is consistently changing. Here are a few examples to give you an idea:
- Will this July be the hottest July on record?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be a temperature increase this month?
- The US will meet its climate goals by…
- Will the EU meet its 2030 climate goals?
Pros and cons of trading on the current weather prediction markets
Thinking about trying to predict the weather? Weather and climate prediction markets have a lot to offer, but it’s important to weigh up the main pros and cons, which we will do now:
Pros and Cons - Diverse range of topics
- All US states are available
- Great market liquidity
- Doesn’t need expert knowledge
- Weather can be hard to predict
Top 3 sites for prediction markets with weather contracts
We have been looking at some of the best sites for weather prediction markets, which we can’t wait to share with you. Not every site is the same, so this will give you the chance to see which site will work the best for you.
| Prediction Market Site | Weather Contracts |
| Polymarket | Temperature, precipitation, and natural disasters |
| Kalshi | Temperature, hurricanes, snow, and rain |
| Crypto.com | Temperature |
Polymarket – 206+ weather prediction markets
Polymarket: Pros and Cons - Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
Polymarket is a top-tier choice when it comes to weather-related trading, covering a wide range of options that you won’t always find at other sites. During our Polymarket review, we were astounded by the selection of Polymarket weather prediction markets, which had over 206 contracts available at the time of our visit. You can predict US-based and international weather outcomes, which is aided by tapping the ‘Globe’ button. Hitting the ‘Globe’ will load a virtual globe, which allows you to narrow your search based on your preferred country or region. For example, if you want to view only New York weather prediction markets, this tool is for you.
Speaking of filters, you are also given the choice of the next 3 days, allowing you to view the available markets for today, tomorrow, and the following day. These markets are available in binary Yes/No formats, covering topics such as the temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes, and pandemics.
Kalshi: Pros & Cons - Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
Kalshi was the first CFTC-regulated prediction market site, but it’s also one of the biggest prediction market sites in the US. Throughout our recent Kalshi review, we browsed the available Kalshi weather prediction markets and were pleased to find options that aren’t always available elsewhere, such as predicting the highest and lowest temperatures in specific states. While there isn’t a dedicated ‘weather’ tab, you can view the available contracts by tapping the ‘Climate’ button.
To help you find your favorite contracts, you can use various filters, including trending, volatile, new, and closing soon. Temperature prediction markets are the most prominent on Kalshi, offering a wide range of daily and hourly contracts, making Kalshi the ideal choice if forecasting local temperatures is your ‘thing’. Kalshi also offers other topics, including hurricanes, snow, and rain.
Crypto.com: Pros and Cons - Welcome bonus
- Broad range of markets
- High-performance mobile app
Right off the bat, it’s fair to say that Crypto.com isn’t offering the widest variety of weather-related contracts when compared to other sites. That said, it’s perfect for beginners who are looking to learn the ropes. As it stands, traders can predict how many days will be ranked as the hottest days on record throughout the year. It’s a unique market that will suit users who prefer to predict long-term outcomes.
Crypto.com is certainly worth checking out, though. What it might lack in weather contracts, it sure makes up for in other areas, offering topics such as sports, crypto, technology, politics, and commodity price prediction markets. While it would be great to see a few more weather contracts added in the future, Crypto.com is one to keep your eye on as it continues to expand.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Conclusion: Add weather contracts to your prediction market rotation
If you are looking to get involved with even more topics, the weather is a great one to try out. While it might not sound that interesting initially, it’s one of the most diverse categories on prediction market sites. Whether you are predicting the temperature, if there will be an earthquake between a specific period, or how much it will snow this month, it makes checking the weather forecast a whole lot more exciting.
The only downfall we could find is that the weather is notoriously hard to predict. Let’s face it, even the weather forecast gets it wrong. So, make sure you keep in mind that the weather is seemingly as volatile as cryptocurrencies, making it a little difficult to predict. That said, it makes the market a lot more interesting. As the weather forecast changes, you can sell your contracts to either pocket an early profit or minimize your loss.
If this sounds like a market you are interested in trying out, why not tap the on-page banners to view our handpicked prediction market sites? All of the sites listed on this page offer a variety of weather-related contracts, appealing to different types of traders.
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Weather prediction markets FAQs
- 🌦️ Are weather prediction market sites reliable?
Yes, of course, provided that you join a reputable site like the ones we have ranked on this page. All of our recommended prediction market sites publish their data sources, so you can verify the outcome yourself.
- 📍 Can I predict the weather in specific states?
Yes, you can. Most prediction market sites with weather contracts allow you to select specific states to customize your search, such as San Francisco weather prediction markets or Miami weather prediction markets.
- 🌍 Do I have to forecast US weather?
No, not at all. Depending on the site you join, you can also predict the weather in other countries and regions. While US-based weather predictions are incredibly popular, you will find a handful of other areas available, too.
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