Best Temperature Prediction Market Sites for Daily Highs in US Cities
Have you ever wondered if you can be rewarded for accurately predicting the weather in your city? If so, then we’ve got the three best temperature prediction market sites you can explore.
These platforms include Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. They let you trade contracts tied to how hot or cold a city can be within a day.
The Best Weather Temperature Prediction Market Apps
- 3 key facts about temperature prediction markets
- Are there prediction markets on the weather?
- What happens after purchasing a temperature event contract?
- Reviewing our best sites for trading temperature prediction markets
- Summarizing our recommended temperature market sites
- Temperature prediction market sites pros and cons
- How to get started at your preferred temperature prediction market sites
- Trade at any of these top temperature prediction market sites today
- Temperature prediction markets FAQs
3 key facts about temperature prediction markets
- Temperature prediction markets let you trade Yes or No event contracts on a city’s hourly or daily temperature.
- The contract prices range from $0.01 to $0.99.
- Our recommended prediction market sites for temperature include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini.
Are there prediction markets on the weather?
Absolutely. These types of prediction markets are completely legal and available across the US. This goes beyond checking the weather app on your smartphone or listening to the weather person at your favorite news station.
Here, you’re taking a position on whether a specific weather-related outcome will occur. This prediction happens either hourly or daily. Here’s an example:
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle today be between 58°F and 59°F?
- Yes at $0.48 or No at $0.52.
This is a real-life question that concerns Seattle’s daily temperature. Of course, if you reside in this city, you have strong opinions. Perhaps you’ve checked the weather app on your phone or done other research.
Whatever sentiment you may have, it all comes down to these two simple outcomes: Yes or No.
As you can see in the question above, which is actually one of the most traded climate prediction markets, the answers are priced between $0.01 and $0.99.
Your goal? Buy the event contract that matches your opinion. If you purchase a Yes contract, it means you believe Seattle’s highest temperature is between 58°F and 59°F at the end of the day. And if you purchase the No contract, you believe quite the opposite.
What happens after purchasing a temperature event contract?
If you decide to buy the Yes or No contract tied to the prediction market above, the site automatically matches you with another trader who wants to sell either contract.
So, let’s say you purchase $100 worth of Yes contracts at $0.48. That gives you about 208 Yes shares. If the day ends and verified sources indicate that Settle recorded the highest temperature between 58°F and 59°F, the Yes contract settles at $1. That means your 208 Yes shares become $208, so you’ll get a $108 return.
But if the highest temperature rises or falls below that range, all Yes contracts would settle at $0, and you’d walk away with nothing.
Reviewing our best sites for trading temperature prediction markets
Trading temperature predictions is becoming more popular, and it can be exciting, especially if you have knowledge of the weather in your city. That’s why we’ve gone the extra mile to curate nothing short of the best temperature prediction market sites you can trade on. Let’s review each of them below.
Polymarket: Trade high and low temperatures across various cities
- Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
- Crypto payments only
Starting off our list is Polymarket, a top prediction market app that is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It’s among our best natural gas prediction market sites and offers high and low-temperature prediction markets for dozens of cities in the US.
It uses 2°F brackets, so if you want to predict the highest temperature, you’ll find event contracts in these ranges: 70°F and 72°F, 74°F and 76°F, 78°F and 80°F. Each day, you’ll find several brackets, each with its Yes/No event contracts, and only one eventually settles at $1.
The weather forecasts settle based on the city’s official weather reporting station. So we recommend reading the settlement rules before you start trading. To enjoy a more streamlined trading experience, you can download the Polymarket US app and make your trades on the go.
Kalshi: Forecast only high temperature across different US cities hourly and daily
- Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
- Transaction fees
If you want daily highs for US cities, Kalshi is where you should go. This is a CFTC-regulated exchange, which means its temperature event contracts are legal and available across the US. Our findings show these temperature markets cover about 20 cities, including New York, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, Denver, and Austin.
Since Miami is on the list, Floridians can trade their local high too. That makes Kalshi a go-to place to trade some of the best Florida prediction markets, including weather. You can make your trades on the go via its mobile app. The platform supports debit cards, Apple Pay, bank transfers, select cryptocurrencies, and wire transfers. So, you can fund your account and start predicting weather conditions in your city.
Gemini: Trade the highest temperature across several US cities
Summarizing our recommended temperature market sites
Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the platforms we just reviewed.
| Platforms | Temperature prediction markets you can trade | Available timeframe | Mobile app |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | High and low-temperature markets in US cities and international regions | Daily | Yes, available on iOS and Android |
| Kalshi | High-temperature markets in select US cities | Hourly, daily | Yes, available on iOS and Android |
| Gemini | High-temperature markets in select US cities | Daily | Yes, available on iOS and Android |
Temperature prediction market sites pros and cons
Here are the pros and cons of our three best temperature prediction market platforms:
- Several US cities to make your predictions
- Prices update live with forecasts
- Easy Yes/No format
- Settlement rules differ by site
- Market depth varies by site
How to get started at your preferred temperature prediction market sites
Now that you know the best temperature prediction websites, it’s time to learn how to trade temperature event contracts. Here’s how to get started:
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Click the banners on this page to visit the site of your preferred brand
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Fill out the sign-up form with your correct details.
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Verify your identity by submitting documents like a passport or driver’s ID, and proof of address like a utility bill or bank statement.
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Once verified, log in to your account with your credentials
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Make your first deposit by clicking the wallet icon
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Select your preferred payment method, and follow any on-screen instructions to complete the transaction.
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Visit the weather section. You’ll find different available contracts for temperature in your state
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Click Yes/No based on your sentiment, enter the number of contracts you want, and submit the order
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After placing the trade, you can exit your position anytime or hold it until the event ends to obtain $1 per share.
Trade at any of these top temperature prediction market sites today
By now, you already know the best temperature market sites. As a refresher, they are Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini. These platforms offer a good selection of temperature-based categories.
Depending on where you choose to trade temperature event contracts, you’re sure to have a cool trading experience. So, when you’re ready to predict tomorrow’s weather in your city, click the banners on this page to get started on your preferred platform and place your trades.
Our Go-To Prediction Market Sites
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Temperature prediction markets FAQs
- 🌡️ What is a temperature prediction market?
It lets you buy or sell Yes or No contracts on a region’s temperature. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and show the market’s perception of each outcome occurring.
- 📱 Why does my weather app show a different high?
That’s because weather contracts settle on verified weather stations, not the app on your smartphone. Check the settlement rules to see which source your preferred prediction market site uses to confirm the day’s highs and lows.
- 🗺️ Can I trade temperature prediction markets in my state?
Yes, you can. But rules differ by state and platform. Check your preferred platform’s terms and eligibility list before signing up.
- 💻 Where can I trade temperature prediction markets?
You can do so on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini. These platforms let you trade the lowest or highest temperature of different US cities.
- 🔄 Can I sell my temperature prediction market contracts before they settle?
Yes. Most temperature prediction market sites let you sell your contracts before the event ends. This means you don’t have to wait for the official temperature reading to settle your position. You can close your trade if the contract price moves in your favor or if your predictions are not going as planned.