July 24, 2026
by James Pacheco
The S&P 500 is the most widely followed stock market index in the world, and that’s not up for debate. If you can forecast outcomes about its performance, S&P 500 prediction markets will interest you.
Our findings show that several prediction market sites in the US feature the index. After testing them out, we selected the top three: Polymarket US, Kalshi, and Crypto.com. These brands are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and they’re live in many states. Keep reading as we explain their S&P event contracts.
The Best Prediction Markets Apps and Sites this 2026
Quick facts about S&P 500 prediction markets
- S&P 500 prediction markets let you trade predictions related to the index.
- Some prediction markets list the index alongside the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
- Above or Below, Up or Down, and Hit Target are the main event contract options.
What are S&P 500 prediction markets?
On S&P 500 prediction market sites, you trade contracts about whether a future event involving the stock index will happen. For the record, you’re not investing actual stocks. You only buy Yes or No contracts based on your predictions.
As noted in our review, S&P 500 events usually fall under finance or economy prediction markets. The contract price stays between $0.01 and $0.99, and each pays $1 if your prediction is correct. We should also mention that the prices represent the market’s estimated probability.
Let’s take an example:
| Tip | Description |
| Understand what you’re predicting | We’ve covered the three main types of S&P 500 event contracts on prediction market sites. Take your time to understand what it means before buying. |
| Start with a small position | Don’t go in with a big purchase from the outset. It’s more ideal to place smaller orders until you gain more experience. |
| Follow finance news | Factors like Fed decisions, inflation, employment, and other economic events can affect the S&P index level. |
| Set limits | Decide on a budget and stick to it. Never spend money you can’t afford to lose on predictions, as trading these event contracts carries real risk. |
Now, if you believe the stock index will reach 7,500 during the month, you buy Yes at $0.31. That price indicates that the market believes the outcome has about a 31% likelihood of happening. On the other hand, the No contract costs $0.72, indicating roughly a 72% implied probability.
If you add both contract prices, you get $1.03 instead of $1. The extra $0.03 is the spread, caused by differences between the bid and ask quotes. Based on our observations, S&P 500 markets usually have higher spreads because there are many target points.
At the end of the market’s period, what happens depends on the outcome of your prediction. If your prediction was correct, you’ll get $1 for every correct event contract you’re holding. If it was incorrect, you’ll get $0. Due to the risks involved, you should never trade S&P predictions with money you can’t afford to lose.
Best prediction markets for S&P 500
Polymarket US, Kalshi, and Crypto.com are the best brands we recommend for S&P predictions. On these sites and apps, you may see the S&P 500 or the SPY ticker symbol. If it’s the latter, then the contracts settle using the price of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which closely tracks the index.
Check out our reviews of each prediction market brand below:
Polymarket US – Best for daily trading
Polymarket: Pros and Cons - Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
We select Polymarket US as our choice if you want to trade on daily S&P 500 events. The brand offers contracts to predict whether the SPY ETF will close at a specific price at the end of the day. You can also trade on the price moving up or down from the rate at market open.
If you join Polymarket US, you’ll find the S&P 500 contracts easy to access. They’re usually among the first you see when you open the finance section from the top tab. Also, the brand uses a bold 500 in a red square, which is quite hard to miss.
For now, Polymarket US is only available on iPhones and iPads. So, you have to install the prediction market’s iOS app from the Apple App Store. In our Polymarket review, we confirmed that an Android app is under development, but the website isn’t an option in the US.
Note that due to its limited rollout, Polymarket US is only offering sports predictions markets in several US states. But in some regions the site’s offerings are expanding.
Kalshi: Pros & Cons - Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
Kalshi has an interesting S&P 500 event that asks whether the stock index will finish positive or negative at the end of the year. We didn’t see this option on most other prediction market sites we tested.
From our Kalshi review, buying Yes for a positive outcome pays out if the S&P records a gain. That applies even if it’s 0.1% compared to its initial level. However, the market will settle as a negative outcome if the index finishes below its starting level.
At Kalshi, we also saw other events, such as how high the S&P 500 will go in a year and which companies will join the S&P 500. You can sort the markets using several filters as you trade, including trending, volatile, and new.
Crypto.com: Pros and Cons - Welcome bonus
- Broad range of markets
- High-performance mobile app
If you register with Crypto.com, you’ll see S&P 500 as US 500. The latter is a common trading name, which still follows the S&P 500 level, so there’s no major difference. From our analysis, Crypto.com is ideal for trading 20-minute and 2-hour event contracts.
When we checked the 20-minute category, the event was simply to predict whether the future index level would be greater or less than a certain amount. The same applies to the 2-hour prediction markets. However, you can trade on the target for two successive hours, for example, 2 PM and 3 PM.
Crypto.com also has daily stock price prediction markets, including for the S&P 500 index. However, we didn’t spot long-term event contracts, such as monthly or annual index outcomes.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Types of S&P 500 prediction markets
Our best prediction market sites for S&P feature different kinds of event contracts. Here are the leading three to know:
Above or Below
We consider Above or Below to be the most common event contract type on S&P 500 prediction markets. As the name suggests, you predict whether the index level will go higher or lower than a particular figure. In other words, it can apply to both short-term and long-term contracts.
Up or Down
For short-term outcomes, Up or Down prediction markets are more popular. This option simply asks you whether the S&P 500 level or the SPY ETF price will increase or decrease relative to its opening rate. In our reviews, we saw Up or Down more for minute, hourly, and daily event contracts.
Hit Target
You can also refer to this category as the target price if it involves the SPY ETF. It’s a regular type, which involves predicting what points the S&P 500 will reach before a deadline. The outcome may be a specific figure, a range, or a greater-than/less-than threshold.
In our experience, this event contract type is most common for long-term outcomes. So, the deadline can be weekly, monthly, yearly, or a specific future date.
You won’t see upcoming earnings prediction markets for the S&P 500 because it’s an index, not a company. However, if a site offers predictions for S&P companies as a group, they’ll typically fall under this category.
S&P 500 prediction trading tips for beginners
The S&P 500 tracks large publicly traded companies in the US, so many factors affect its performance. For this reason, we classify the prediction market as one for advanced traders. If you’re new, we advise following these tips:
| Tip | Description |
| Understand what you’re predicting | We’ve covered the three main types of S&P 500 event contracts on prediction market sites. Take your time to understand what it means before buying. |
| Start with a small position | Don’t go in with a big purchase from the outset. It’s more ideal to place smaller orders until you gain more experience. |
| Follow finance news | Factors like Fed decisions, inflation, employment, and other economic events can affect the S&P index level. |
| Set limits | Decide on a budget and stick to it. Never spend money you can’t afford to lose on predictions, as trading these event contracts carries real risk. |
Pros and cons of S&P event contracts
We’ve so far covered all you need to know about S&P 500 prediction markets. Now, let’s summarize the pros and cons of trading the event contracts:
Pros and Cons - Simple Yes or No trading pattern
- Multiple prediction types
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Many factors influence the index
Check out our reliable economic prediction sites
Conclusion – Trade S&P prediction markets on the best sites
Thanks to its popularity, the S&P 500 index is widely available on prediction market sites. Remember, as we explained, you’re not buying stocks. Instead, you buy and sell Yes or No event contracts that cost from $0.01 to $0.99, and each pays $1 if you’re correct.
It’s not an overstatement to say that predicting S&P outcomes is complex. The good news is that our top prediction market sites give you multiple options to trade. You have event contracts that settle in minutes, hours, days, weeks, or a year. That way, you can pick a timeframe that suits your research pattern and work with it.
If you’ve selected your preferred prediction market brand from our list, tap its banners on this page to visit the site. Don’t forget to apply our tips as you trade, especially if you’re a beginner.
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S&P 500 prediction markets FAQs
- 📈 Are S&P prediction market sites available in the US?
S&P prediction market sites are available in the US under CFTC oversight, but availability differs by location.
- 📱 What is the best prediction market app for the S&P 500?
The best S&P 500 prediction market app depends on your location and preferences. We recommend Polymarket US, Crypto.com, and Kalshi if you can access them.
- 💼 Can I buy S&P stocks on prediction market sites?
No, you can’t buy S&P stocks on prediction market sites. You can only trade event contracts on whether outcomes involving the stock index or the SPY ETF will happen.
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