July 14, 2026
by Emma Harrison
The best World Cup prediction market apps have already priced England as slight favorites to beat Argentina in Wednesday’s semi-final at Atlanta Stadium, with the “to advance” contract sitting between $0.55 and $0.56 across Polymarket and Kalshi.
The regulation-time numbers tell a different story, though with England at $0.37, a draw at $0.33 and Argentina at $0.31 on Polymarket’s 90-minute market. That tighter spread says a lot about how traders expect this one to play out after both teams needed extra time in the quarters.
How England and Argentina got here
Neither team got through their quarter-final inside 90 minutes, and with only a few days between matches, tired legs could play a bigger part in this one than most people are factoring in on prediction markets.
Bellingham dragged England through against Norway
England’s 2-1 extra-time win over Norway was really Bellingham’s game from start to finish, with both goals coming from a player who looks like he’s operating on a completely different level to everyone else at this tournament, and the prediction market news pricing across all three sites backs that up.
Argentina found another way past Switzerland
A 3-1 win against Switzerland in extra time put Argentina through, following the same pattern that’s carried them all tournament. Julián Álvarez’s late breakthrough opened the game up and Lautaro Martínez added two more from there. This will be the sixth World Cup meeting between the countries, and Argentina are chasing something historic here, since no team has defended the trophy since Brazil back in 1962.
Best prediction market apps for England v Argentina
All three sports prediction markets sites have live contracts for Wednesday’s match, and we’d recommend each one for a different type of trader.
Polymarket – Best for market variety
Polymarket: Pros and Cons - Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
As mentioned in our Polymarket review, Polymarket carries more markets than the others on this list. Team to Advance and a regulation-time result sit as the main contracts, with separate tabs covering spreads, total goals, both teams to score, first team to score, and team totals. Deeper markets go into exact scores, halves, corners, individual goals, assists and shots for anyone wanting more specific contracts. One thing to keep in mind is that the moneyline only covers 90 minutes and stoppage time, so stick with Team to Advance if you’re predicting the actual winner.
Kalshi – Best for U.S. liquidity
Kalshi: Pros & Cons - Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
As mentioned in our Kalshi review, Kalshi trades some serious volume, and the $3.2 million in volume on the “to advance” contract alone tells you where the serious money is going on this match. Beyond that, the site lists regulation-time result, method of victory, first-half winner, first goalscorer, first team to score, score or assist, corners, spreads, team totals and assists, so there’s a contract for most predictions you’d want to make on this game.
Pros and Cons - Welcome bonus
- Broad range of markets
- High-performance mobile app
Crypto.com handles sports event trading through its app and website with USD accounts funded via wire, ACH or eligible instant deposits. On top of that, over 350 crypto tokens can be converted into USD for trading through the same account. Traders already holding crypto who want a position on England v Argentina can skip the step of moving funds to another site and get straight into the match with a Crypto.com promo code.
Pick your side before kick-off
England and Argentina haven’t played a dull World Cup match yet, and Wednesday’s semi-final has all the ingredients to follow suit. Sign up through the banners on this page and get your position in before the game on Wednesday.