July 9, 2026
by Emma Harrison
Matchday 29 sees Spain take on Belgium this Friday in the knockout stage (direct ticket) to the semifinal, and World Cup prediction market promos are live and usable on the upcoming matchup. On one side, Spain: zero goals conceded.
They’re off a 1-nil “stoppage-time” win against Portugal, whereas Belgium staged a crushing 4-1 victory over co-host USA in the round of 16. Cue the upcoming matchup, and Spain is pegged as the likely favorites; they’ve historically one-upped Belgium, have a strong tournament trend this far (0 goals conceded), and have the lineup to “beat” Belgium’s leaky defense. Here’s more.
Matchday 29 is here, and this Friday, July 10th, at SoFi Stadium, a Spain v Belgium thriller is on the cards. A snapshot of the prediction markets sees Spain as the overwhelming favorite by crowd sentiment, with a likelihood of 61-73%+ to win, whilst Belgium comes in at a low 17-21% for the tie, and it’s not for nought. This has to do with Spain’s zero (0) goals conceded/match-on-match win, even eliminating Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal via a 1-nil “stoppage-time” win.
Add to their squad young talents, like Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Pedri, and Pau Cubarsí, and they’re likely to control the match, leveraging high pressing and set-pieces to pierce through Belgium’s leaky defense. Plus, historical H2H have this encounter to their advantage. Still, don’t count out Belgium yet; their sports prediction markets are likely to hold great value. They’re in great shape following a crushing 4-1 win over the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) and are likely to replicate this Friday. So, who will take the win?
Here’s where to catch the match and the bonuses you’re up for.
Kalshi – $10 match bonus
Kalshi: Pros & Cons - Broad range of markets
- 24/7 live chat support
- Huge reputation
- Native mobile app
Kicking off the list is Kalshi, one of the easily recognizable prediction markets that’s CFTC-regulated; thus legitimate, and has the market depth to match, as captured in our exhaustive Kalshi review. Cue Spain v Belgium, and the event contract is live, with picks for Spain advances (~73-74% probability), Belgium advances (~26-27%), spreads and totals, team totals, regulation-time gamelines, player props, and more.
They have all the must-haves covered, with liquidity well past the $1M+ mark. All the better when you factor in the $10 signup bonus, usable for Spain v Belgium, when you register with our promo code and make a $10 qualifying trade. Remember, the odds prices are not static; they’re dynamic, changing in real-time via prediction market news. You can see the changes live through the visualized graph.
Polymarket – $50 starter bonus
Polymarket: Pros and Cons - Numerous markets on sports, crypto, the economy, and politics
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Multiple rewards for existing traders
Going toe-for-toe, being Polymarket with nearly $1M in trading volume (gets way higher in “high profile matches”) and just as many event contracts/prediction markets to pick from; all on crypto-rails. Going by our in-depth Polymarket review, you primarily use USDC to make picks. Polymarket’s broader liquidity pools are also made possible by its global reach, as it’s available to a worldwide community. Getting into Spain v Belgium, all the usual markets, including game lines, exact score, halves, and corners, are live. As for the bonus, you get $50 in trading credits for making a $20 minimum deposit.
Pros and Cons - Welcome bonus
- Broad range of markets
- High-performance mobile app
Rounding up the list is Crypto.com, a branch of the CFTC-regulated crypto exchange, and it packs the biggest starter bonus yet, going up to $250; check out our Crypto.com promo code review, where we cover its workings at length, including how to claim your portion. Like the other prediction market sites, you get the usuals for Spain v Belgium with event contracts for Spain win, Tie/Draw, Belgium win, and so forth, including team props.
Make your pick for Spain v Belgium today
There you have it: the World Cup is closing in on the semifinals and clear favorites are shaping up; one of the often “name-dropped” picks being Spain. This Friday, they’re favored to win and keep their title dream alive. But it’s not all smooth sailing, as Belgium have time and again shown their mettle when it counts. Grab any of the bonuses using our on-page banners and back your favorites.