July 3, 2026
by Emma Harrison
Paraguay meets France in the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup at Lincoln Financial Field. With a last-eight spot on the line, the Kalshi sign up bonus gives you $10 with our promo code PREDICTSAIL.
Whether you are looking to back the overwhelming favorites, France, or the underdogs, Paraguay, Kalshi has various trading angles you can participate in for this match. A strong Les Bleus side has unmatched attacking flair, while the Paraguayans have been excellent defensively. Here’s a deeper dive into picks and predictions for this July 4th game.
How Kalshi sees Paraguay v France: top picks and player props
Even before the first kick, France is the favorite to win this game. In most of the sports prediction markets, they have a 90%+ chance of getting the job done. That boils down to their squad depth and a stellar World Cup campaign so far.
The Paraguayans, although long shots, can still pose a challenge to the former world champions. After a spirited fight against the Germans in the round of 32, they are even more motivated to take France to the wire.
Our top picks and player props you can jump after claiming your welcome bonus with our Kalshi promo code PREDICTSAIL include:
France to advance
Neutrals and die-hard fans alike are sold on the idea of France going through to the quarter-finals. Thus, France to advance is by far the most backed outcome, and it’s most likely, going by what prediction market news are saying and the implied chance on Kalshi (90%).
France ran riot in the group stage. Big victories against top sides like Senegal proved their intent to win a third World Cup. They drew Sweden in the round of 32 and made quick work of them, winning 3-0. While their opponents did more than just scrape through the tie with Germany on penalties. Going into this match, this proves to be a big match for Paraguay. They are good defensively, but will they be solid enough to withstand the French juggernaut?
Mbappe to Score 0.5+ Goals
Mbappe continues to prove himself to be one of the finest forwards in world football. He’s now up to 18 World Cup goals in just 18 matches. He’s won the world title once and made two finals in that period.
His brace against the Swedes was another testament to the type of player he is. He loves the big occasion and always shows up with a goal. For this match, the Mbappe to Score market has a 70% chance. Considering his hot form, the high-stakes nature of the match, and fluidity with teammates, YES shares at ¢70 is a great opportunity to use your bonus. Read our Kalshi review to understand the platform better and get started trading.
France to score over 2.5 goals
The win against Sweden was Le Bleus’ fourth consecutive game in this tournament, where they’ve scored three or more goals. All indications are that the July 4th match against Paraguay is another one where they’ll score a couple. French forwards, Mbappe and Dembele, have shown they can carry the goalscoring burden alone this summer.
However, the likes of Michael Olise are also contributing positively. On their day, scoring over 2.5 goals is child’s play for this front three.
How to trade this event at Kalshi
Kalshi lets you enjoy this game as a trader would. It gives you a sign-up bonus that you can use to explore various prediction markets. To claim this bonus, we recommend you follow these steps:
- Click on any Kalshi banners you see on this page.
- Tap the green “Sign up” button you see at the top right.
- Enter your email and verify it with a code sent to your inbox.
- Follow the on-page prompts to guide you as you fill out the form.
- Enter our Kalshi promo code: PREDICTSAIL.
- Provide the requested details and submit the form. Alternatively, you can connect your Google account.
- Deposit at least $10 and trade it on an event contract.
- Kalshi will add the $10 sign up bonus to your account instantly.
Once your Kalshi sign up bonus is delivered, all that’s left to do is explore the various picks we’ve explored. Here’s a current snapshot of the market.
Our pick for Paraguay vs France
Paraguay v France sees two storied World Cup sides meet up. After coming through their group as underdogs, Paraguay continued their amazing journey in the round of 32 by knocking out the Germans. Les Bleus, on their end, may be said to have had an easy run. In a real sense, their quality has been the difference maker.
Our analysis compels us to pick France to win in regular time. As two-time World Champions, they have the pedigree, experience, and managerial know-how needed to win knockout games. They also have a star-studded forward line that has won each game in this tournament by three or more goals. Claim your bonus through our banners to start trading the event before kickoff.